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United States
The ISM Services PMI accelerated more than expected, signaling a solid expansion in the sector.
The expansion remained broad-based.
Canada
The US share of Canadian exports fell to the lowest level outside the pandemic.
Europe
Europe’s smallest firms face implied costs of capital above 60%, versus roughly 40% for US peers, constraining their capacity to finance and scale profitable growth.
Japan
The yen rallied sharply in a four-standard-deviation move, amid rising expectations for consecutive Bank of Japan rate hikes and speculation about renewed intervention.
Equities
Alpine Macro’s Tactical Asset Allocation with AI model increased its risk stance for September, raising equity and gold allocations, while trimming fixed income and commodities.
Rates
Hedge funds’ expanding, leveraged, and concentrated Treasury positions are replacing China and other central banks as a potential source of market instability, increasing the risk that forced deleveraging could amplify a bond-market selloff.
Commodities
A strong El Niño does not necessarily mean a bull market for agricultural commodities, according to TS Lombard.
Global Developments
Foreign investors’ dollar hedge ratios have fallen to a record low.
A useful daily brief is less about predicting the next print and more about tracking which constraints are tightening — rates, energy, and credit conditions usually matter more than any one datapoint.