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United States
Financial conditions have tightened a bit recently, driven almost entirely by the increase in long bond yields.
The net effect on overall GDP is muted.
Euro Area
The Rhine River water level at Kaub briefly turned negative (relative to a reference elevation) for the first time in its 170-year recorded history. The Kiel Institute estimates that industrial production falls by 1% for every 30 days the water level is below the 0.78-meter threshold.
China
China had a net outflow of 7,800 millionaires in 2025, one of the world’s largest.
Emerging Markets
Indonesia—already with the second-largest number of low-priced stocks—has lowered its minimum share price from Rp50 to Rp1 to improve liquidity and price discovery, allowing previously floor-bound stocks to trade lower.
Equities
Historically, the 60/40 portfolio has produced a better median outcome during stagflation than either stocks or bonds alone.
Rates
Treasury duration has fallen sharply.
Global Developments
The majority of inputs into Variant Perception’s growth LEI models are deteriorating again quarter over quarter, consistent with a slightly softer growth impulse.
Food for Thought
Corporate America is turning to cheaper open-weight AI models.
