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Global Developments
The latest Daily Shot survey showed that monetary policy expectations have shifted sharply, with a significant share of readers (74%) now expecting the Fed to raise rates further in the next 12 months.
United States
A new Federal Reserve staff Financial Vulnerability Index (FVI) reached the 65th percentile in the second quarter, signaling vulnerability is “notable” but not yet “elevated.”
United Kingdom
The UK’s increase in general government net debt as a share of GDP since 2005 is the largest in the G7.
China
China’s export volumes have surged well above their pre-pandemic trend, while its trade surplus has climbed to nearly 1% of global GDP.
Emerging Markets
Across Brazilian elections since 2000, equities and FX have sold off into the vote and rallied afterward as the risk premium built in ahead of it unwinds.
Equities
S&P 500 breadth has narrowed to its weakest level since the dot-com bubble.
Rates
Bloomberg’s 2021 shift of its fixed-income index pricing time from 3 p.m. to 4 p.m. triggered a pronounced migration in Treasury trading toward the later close.
Food for Thought
Here’s a look at the trend in world records for Rubik’s Cube solving times.
The breadth chart matters more than the index level here. If the S&P stays near highs while participation keeps deteriorating, I’d rather follow relative strength in the surviving leaders than assume the index has to catch down immediately.