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United States
Oxford Economics expects restocking to turn inventories into an increasing support for growth through 2027 alongside strong business investment.
United Kingdom
July GDP growth smashed expectations.
Euro Area
Nomura’s ECBspeak Index shows a sharp hawkish shift in ECB communication in 2026, accompanied by a widening spread between one-year-ahead and one-month-ahead euro interest rates, consistent with expectations of further policy tightening.
Equities
Stripe’s payment-based index of non-AI SaaS businesses shows annual nominal revenue growth accelerating.
Rates
The Treasury bought $5.19 billion of 10- to 20-year debt in its first expanded buyback, below the $6 billion maximum despite $10.5 billion in offers, fueling doubts about its ability to curb long-term yields.
Energy
The backwardation in the forward curve has intensified.
Energy
The spot Brent premium over WTI jumped.
Global Developments
Implied volatility fell across bonds and US equities but rose for emerging market equities and oil.
A daily brief only earns its keep if it changes what you do before lunch.