This is the Daily Shot Brief, an abridged version of The Daily Shot. If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.
United States
Cyclical payrolls—construction and manufacturing—have rebounded from their 2025 weakness to a new cycle high, signaling improving economic momentum despite weak headline payrolls.
Euro Area
Over 50% of young adults in Spain live with their parents.
Spain’s housing stock has barely grown since 2015, even as its population climbed and inflation-adjusted rents surged.
Emerging Markets
Flávio Bolsonaro led President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s first-round election (47% versus 45.1%), setting up an October 25 runoff.
Equities
The equal-weighted S&P 500 continues to lag the cap-weighted benchmark. The relative ratio’s deviation from trend is nearing levels last seen during the dot-com bubble.
Rates
Our Treasury Dislocation Index, which measures the deviations of individual Treasury notes and bonds from their theoretical fair values, has risen recently, though the level is by no means extreme.
Credit
Roughly 83% of the corporate bond market’s credit premium from 1997 to 2023 was earned during the first five trading days of each month.
Commodities
Discoveries of major gold mines have dwindled to almost none in recent years.
Food for Thought
The share of Americans hosting friends or family at home has plunged.
