This is the Daily Shot Brief, an abridged version of The Daily Shot. If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.
United States
The average probability of a recession over the next 12 months dipped to 24%, according to The Wall Street Journal’s survey of economists.
Euro Area
German startup formation has surged.
Emerging Markets
Latin American equities are cheap based on the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio.
Equities
AI-related stocks make up 49% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization, …
… exceeding the concentration reached during every historical bubble except the railroad boom.
Rates
Market participants expect the federal funds rate to average 3.25% over the next decade, implying a hefty term premium priced into the rate curve.
Alternatives
Hedge funds’ market footprint has expanded substantially, particularly through rising gross notional exposures.
Food for Thought
Across wealthy countries, millennials have higher inflation-adjusted incomes than previous generations did at comparable ages.
