This is the Daily Shot Brief, an abridged version of The Daily Shot. If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.
Global Developments
According to The Daily Shot Pulse survey, readers still overwhelmingly believe AI-related stocks are in a bubble, and a rising share now hold the view that the bubble will pop within the next 12 months.
United States
Inflation mentions on S&P 500 earnings calls are on track for their biggest year-over-year jump since mid-2022.
United Kingdom
The UK’s benefits spending has risen steadily for decades, and forecasts point to further increases.
The country faces substantially higher infrastructure construction costs than many peer economies, particularly for rail and tram projects.
Equities
Variant Perception’s Macro Risk Indicator has slipped from the “Risk-On” regime to neutral.
Global hedge funds have reduced gross equity exposure by more than 8% since June, marking the largest unwind since at least 2017 and pushing gross leverage among US long/short funds to the 10th percentile of its one-year range, according to Morgan Stanley.
However, in US midterm election years, November has always rebounded following an October decline, while December has posted just one loss (in 2018).
Food for Thought
Last week’s breach at Binance dwarfs other major historical crypto heists.
