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United States
The quits rate, a leading indicator of wage growth, suggests further moderation in compensation costs, according to Oxford Economics.
Europe
Market-based funding accounts for about 40% of US corporate debt and 60% of equity, versus roughly 20% in the euro area.
Asia-Pacific
South Korean export growth reached its fastest pace since 1974, supported by surging AI-related semiconductor shipments and favorable calendar effects. Import growth also accelerated.
China
China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI fell back into contractionary territory.
Emerging Markets
Emerging-market sovereign bonds have significantly outperformed developed-market government debt since the end of 2024.
Equities
US small caps have historically rallied from November of midterm election years through April, delivering an average annualized total return of 42% over the past century.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield has become more correlated with the Nasdaq than with oil.
Commodities
Most of the roughly 150 tons added to gold-backed ETFs since mid-July is now underwater. The chart below shows spot gold sliding even as ETF holdings remain near their highs.
Food for Thought
Revenue has increasingly diverged from headcount at major US tech companies, although the trend began before the generative AI boom.
