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United States
Morgan Stanley estimates that the share of PCE categories with inflation above 3%, a breadth measure highlighted by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, increased in October.
Euro Area
Germany’s Weekly Activity Index continues to advance.
Our underlying growth estimate for Germany has converged to that of its euro area peers.
Asia-Pacific
Taiwan’s AI-related exports to the US are at the highest share of GDP among peers and up sharply since 2023, making its economy acutely exposed to US policy shifts.
China
China’s earnings growth has fallen short of analyst expectations for nine years in a row.
Equities
The earnings upgrade cycle is losing momentum, with more EM companies now being downgraded than upgraded.
Energy
The Brent premium over WTI has evaporated.
Food for Thought
A simulation of one million Monopoly games suggests that first-turn outcomes significantly influence winning odds, which range from 35.6% for landing on Boardwalk to just 14.9% for rolling a four.
