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United States
The entrepreneurship rate among 18- to 24-year-olds has more than doubled in a decade to overtake every older age group.
China
The cumulative trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion through October.
Emerging Markets
The EM equity dividend yield is roughly double the S&P 500’s.
Equities
Valuations have limited predictive power over short horizons but are strongly associated with long-term equity returns.
Both the cyclically adjusted earnings yield and the price-to-book ratio suggest subdued equity returns over the coming decade.
Our Affine Stock-Bond Model, which jointly estimates equity and bond risk premia, also points to historically low expected equity returns.
Rates
USD inflation swap rates have fallen, led by the front end.
Commodities
The US cattle herd has fallen to its smallest level in 75 years, constraining beef supply.
Energy
US gasoline prices fell below $4 a gallon for the first time since July but remain roughly 19% above seasonal norms amid lingering supply disruptions.
Global Developments
Oxford Economics expects a record El Niño to leave lasting scars, with world GDP falling to a trough near 0.9% below baseline in 2028 and staying about 0.7% lower through 2031, as emerging economies bear the persistent loss.
Food for Thought
This visualization shows the daily routines of famous creative people.
