The Daily Shot Brief – July 31, 2026
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United States
Q2 GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, below consensus estimates, as heavy drags from net trade and inventory destocking masked robust underlying demand.
United Kingdom
The Bank of England kept its policy rate at 3.75%, though the vote split came in more hawkish than anticipated at 6–3 in favor of holding (with three members voting for a 25 bps rate hike). However, the policy statement struck a dovish tone, noting clear signs of underlying disinflation and limited evidence of second-round price effects.
Euro Area
The euro area Q2 GDP unexpectedly accelerated, topping consensus forecasts and demonstrating resilience to recent energy market volatility.
Japan
The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at around 1.0%, with one dissenter favoring a hike to around 1.25%, and more explicitly warned that underlying inflation could overshoot its 2% target.
Asia-Pacific
The Kospi rebounded sharply.
China
China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell back into contraction.
Emerging Markets
Historically, elevated consensus long-term earnings growth rates have been a contrarian indicator.
Equities
How much of the stock market do households own?
Credit
US High Yield Corporate Bond Index OAS broke above its 100-day moving average.
