The Daily Shot Brief – July 23, 2026
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United States
Estimates for the nominal neutral rate (R-star) are clustering around 3.1%.
Asia-Pacific
South Korea’s Q2 real GDP moderated but surpassed consensus estimates.
China
The combined credit and fiscal impulse—the strongest leading indicator of economic activity—signals an increased risk of negative growth surprises ahead.
Emerging Markets
Bank Indonesia unexpectedly kept its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 5.75%, shifting its focus toward exchange rate stabilization and expanding onshore hedging incentives rather than monetary tightening.
Equities
The S&P 500 has historically risen in about 84% of periods, with that probability falling to roughly 64% only when earnings growth turns negative—a condition not currently evident.
Rates
The 30-year yield has stayed above 5% for 13 consecutive sessions, the longest streak since 2007.
Global Developments
Real global semiconductor sales have risen 80% since 2025, well below the fivefold increase during the internet boom of the 1990s, suggesting the current semiconductor expansion may still have substantial room to run.
