The Daily Shot Brief – July 22, 2026
This is the Daily Shot Brief, an abridged version of The Daily Shot. If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.
United States
The BEA’s upcoming methodology changes are expected to lower measured core PCE inflation for June by about 0.2 percentage points, effectively erasing the apparent acceleration in core inflation this year.
Canada
The recently announced 50% tariffs under Section 338 apply to a relatively small share of Canadian exports to the US, suggesting a limited impact on growth.
United Kingdom
The UK runs a larger current account deficit than other G7 economies, with the exception of the US. The reliance on foreign capital leaves financial conditions more sensitive to global economic shocks.
Euro Area
Euro area banks further tightened credit standards for companies and households. Business loan demand rose slightly, while household loan demand weakened, particularly for housing loans.
Japan
Japan’s trade deficit unexpectedly widened.
Asia-Pacific
Nomura’s leading index of Asian exports continues to surge, signaling an Asian export supercycle.
China
Our calculations show that the ex ante term premium for 10-year CGBs has collapsed to zero. In other words, taking on duration risk does not appear to be rewarded.
Equities
Stocks have outperformed houses significantly over the past five decades.
Energy
Refining margins continue to rise.
Global Developments
Global reserve diversification has shifted less into major alternatives—such as the euro, yen, sterling, or renminbi—and more into unspecified “other” fiat currencies. The share of these “other” currencies has risen by more than $500 billion since 2020 to 6.2% in Q1 2026, surpassing the yen as the third-largest reserve component.
