The Daily Shot Brief – July 16, 2026
This is the Daily Shot Brief, an abridged version of The Daily Shot. If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.
United States
The one-year inflation swap rate fell below 2% for the first time since September 2024.
Canada
The Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% and struck a modestly hawkish tone. It upgraded its medium-term growth outlook while maintaining confidence that underlying inflation remains contained, reinforcing expectations that rates will stay on hold through 2026.
United Kingdom
The UK economy rebounded in May, driven by a surge in professional services, which offset sharp declines in the construction and energy sectors. The three-month-over-three-month growth rate remains solidly above potential growth.
Euro Area
China’s exports to Germany surpassed the pandemic-era peak and are almost 70% above their 2010–19 trend.
Asia-Pacific
The Bank of Korea raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, a unanimous decision. Officials upgraded the 2026 GDP outlook, now expecting growth to “considerably exceed” the previous 2.6% forecast, driven by robust semiconductor exports. The governor emphasized data dependency for future policy but noted that discussions were aligned with the May dot plot, which signaled an additional 50 basis points of hikes this year.
Equities
The hyperscaler multiple has been crushed.
Energy
The Brent prompt spread is spiking after briefly flirting with contango.
