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United States
The number of states with initial claims rising over 20% year over year remains low.
Japan
Japanese corporate margins expanded broadly after Abenomics.
However, the gains were driven primarily by yen depreciation rather than improvements in labor productivity. BCA expects structurally higher wages, rising unit labor costs, and a stronger yen to reverse the trend, leading to a secular decline in corporate margins.
China
China’s trade growth moderated in July, as AI-related electronics and green technology offset weather disruptions.
Emerging Markets
Mexico’s server-related exports to the US have overtaken autos, underscoring how AI data-center demand is reshaping its export base.
Equities
Bank of America’s Bull & Bear Indicator reached its most bullish level since 2021, prompting strategists to recommend reducing risk exposure.
Rates
Alpine Macro’s valuation model indicates the 10-year Treasury becomes attractive as yields approach 5%.
Food for Thought
Germany’s big rivers are running dry.
