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United States
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh commented that he gauged underlying inflation by looking at the shares of the PCE basket that showed price increases above 3%. He noted these measures are below the post-pandemic highs but well above levels in the two decades preceding the pandemic.
Canada
Real GDP accelerated sharply to an annualized rate of 3.3% in the second quarter, …
… led by exports, consumer spending, and business investment.
Japan
Industrial production unexpectedly edged up, marking its fourth consecutive monthly advance. The surprise was underpinned by strength in semiconductor manufacturing equipment as well as a rebound in chemicals and petroleum refining as Middle Eastern supply disruptions eased.
Equities
AI-related investment gains increasingly flatter hyperscaler earnings, with “other income” rising to 54% of pretax income. Excluding other income, the adjusted profit margins are closer to 20%.
Rates
For three decades, changes in the 10-year Treasury yield were concentrated almost entirely around Fed meetings. That stopped in 2022.
Credit
US high-yield OAS slipped to the lowest level since February 2025.
Global Developments
On a trailing three-month basis, Goldman’s trimmed core inflation slowed in the euro area, but accelerated elsewhere.
