The Daily Shot Brief – August 3, 2026
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United States
Researchers built a multi-agent LLM framework to simulate the FOMC decision process, with each agent representing an FOMC member receiving real-time macroeconomic data. The chart below shows the simulated and actual Fed funds rate. For July, the Financial Times also ran a simulation, with AI personas unanimously predicting a 25-basis-point Fed rate increase, citing persistent above-target inflation and de-anchored expectations.
Euro Area
Euro area inflation accelerated, driven by higher energy prices and broader services inflation momentum across France and the Netherlands.
Japan
The yen strengthened further, with USD/JPY tumbling below its long-term support.
Japan
The United States and Japan confirmed a rare coordinated yen-buying intervention, signaling readiness for further action.
Asia-Pacific
… driven by sustained strength in chips.
Equities
The proportion of S&P 500 companies beating earnings estimates in Q2 is at a record high.
Rates
Based on yearly values, the current 10-year yield is above the 100-year moving average.
