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United States
Federal debt has consistently defied CBO forecasts.
Europe
European banks have outperformed the Mag-7 since 2022.
Japan
Q2 GDP grew by 1.1% (Q/Q, SAAR), well below consensus.
China
Total social financing (TSF) topped forecasts, supported by stronger corporate bond financing and higher government bond issuance.
Emerging Markets
Emerging-market inflation-linked bonds have performed well this year.
Equities
The forward P/E of the largest 10 companies in the S&P 500 has converged to that of the remaining companies.
Rates
Hedge Funds’ $4 trillion gross exposure—$2.4 trillion longs and $1.6 trillion shorts—is dominated by repo-financed relative-value trades—basis, swap-spread arbitrage, maturity-matched, and curve positions—rather than long-only holdings, increasing the risk of destabilizing forced unwinds.
