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United States
Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly contracted in July, as a steep drop in government employment offset modest gains in private jobs.
Euro Area
Rhine River levels at Kaub are reaching record seasonal lows amid Europe’s unusually hot, dry summer, raising the risk of disruptions to German industry and GDP, with research indicating that 30 days of low water can reduce industrial production by about 1%.
Europe
Europe’s truck-driver shortage reached 502,000 vacancies in 2025 and is set to worsen with retirements, raising freight costs and delivery risks across supply chains.
Japan
Speculators sharply reduced net short positions in yen futures.
Asia-Pacific
Kospi’s implied volatility has eased but remains much higher than that of the EM market as a whole.
China
CPI inflation cooled more than expected, driven by lower oil and tourism prices.
Equities
The S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 have soared.
Rates
Our Treasury Dislocation Index, which measures the deviations of individual Treasury notes and bonds from their theoretical fair values, has risen recently, though the level is by no means extreme.
