United States

The Conference Board consumer confidence index unexpectedly softened, …

Euro Area

Consensus growth for the euro area is considerably weaker than that for other developed economies.

Europe

Swedish GDP growth accelerated sharply in Q2.

Asia-Pacific

The Kospi continued to plunge, falling below its 200-day moving average.

China

Here’s a look at bankruptcy trends in China.

Equities

Goldman’s high-beta momentum basket has given up all its year-to-date gains.

Rates

USD inflation swap rates continue to fall.

Global Developments

The UK continues to have the highest intermediate- and long-term yields among major economies.

United States

Timely surveys are consistent with solid business investment.

United Kingdom

Economic data have surprised to the upside recently.

Euro Area

Surveys signal a pickup in GDP growth for Germany.

Asia-Pacific

The Kospi plunged as the AI-chip rout deepened, with the peak-to-trough drawdown reaching 33.9%.

Equities

BCA’s US Equity Risk Indicator is one standard deviation above its mean, which historically has signaled a major pullback in the S&P 500.

Rates

Does TIPS-implied breakeven inflation predict future inflation?

Commodities

Gold prices have decoupled from the global money supply.

Global Developments

80% of our readers believe AI-related stocks are in a bubble, with a growing share expecting the bubble to pop within a year.

United States

Businesses raised selling prices at the fastest pace since August 2022.

United Kingdom

Variant Perception’s leading indicator does not bode well for UK growth.

Japan

Japanese department-store sales of gems, precious metals, and artwork rose 19% year over year to a record ¥330 billion in the first half of 2026, as domestic shoppers shifted toward jewelry and gold as stores of value amid inflation and a weaker yen.

Asia-Pacific

Australia’s yield curve signals some softening in growth in the coming months.

h/t Variant Perception

China

State-backed capital dominates China’s venture ecosystem, with state-owned enterprises and government-managed investment funds providing 74% of venture capital and private equity fundraising.

Equities

Equities typically trade sideways ahead of midterm elections.

Rates

Treasuries across the curve have underperformed cash so far this year.

United States

Initial jobless claims fell sharply to the lowest level since 1969, likely driven by seasonal distortions from annual auto plant shutdowns.

Euro Area

The European Central Bank left rates unchanged, matching consensus expectations. However, policymakers delivered a hawkish message focused on upside inflation risks, aligning with market expectations for a potential rate increase at the September meeting.

Japan

Headline inflation accelerated to 1.7% year over year on energy base effects. Core inflation (less fresh food) also edged up, but core-core inflation (less fresh food and energy) slowed.

China

Utilized foreign direct investment rose in June, but the year-to-date total still contracted, highlighting ongoing headwinds for foreign capital inflows.

Emerging Markets

Earnings growth is expected to increase across EM sectors.

Equities

The market cap of the US is much higher than its global GDP and revenue shares.

Rates

The USD inflation swap market remains remarkably calm relative to its EUR counterpart.

Global Developments

Households in Europe allocate a much smaller share of their assets to equities than those in the US and Canada.

United States

Estimates for the nominal neutral rate (R-star) are clustering around 3.1%.

Asia-Pacific

South Korea’s Q2 real GDP moderated but surpassed consensus estimates.

China

The combined credit and fiscal impulse—the strongest leading indicator of economic activity—signals an increased risk of negative growth surprises ahead.

Emerging Markets

Bank Indonesia unexpectedly kept its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 5.75%, shifting its focus toward exchange rate stabilization and expanding onshore hedging incentives rather than monetary tightening.

Equities

The S&P 500 has historically risen in about 84% of periods, with that probability falling to roughly 64% only when earnings growth turns negative—a condition not currently evident.

Rates

The 30-year yield has stayed above 5% for 13 consecutive sessions, the longest streak since 2007.

Global Developments

Real global semiconductor sales have risen 80% since 2025, well below the fivefold increase during the internet boom of the 1990s, suggesting the current semiconductor expansion may still have substantial room to run.

United States

The BEA’s upcoming methodology changes are expected to lower measured core PCE inflation for June by about 0.2 percentage points, effectively erasing the apparent acceleration in core inflation this year.

Canada

The recently announced 50% tariffs under Section 338 apply to a relatively small share of Canadian exports to the US, suggesting a limited impact on growth.

United Kingdom

The UK runs a larger current account deficit than other G7 economies, with the exception of the US. The reliance on foreign capital leaves financial conditions more sensitive to global economic shocks.

Euro Area

Euro area banks further tightened credit standards for companies and households. Business loan demand rose slightly, while household loan demand weakened, particularly for housing loans.

Japan

Japan’s trade deficit unexpectedly widened.

Asia-Pacific

Nomura’s leading index of Asian exports continues to surge, signaling an Asian export supercycle.

China

Our calculations show that the ex ante term premium for 10-year CGBs has collapsed to zero. In other words, taking on duration risk does not appear to be rewarded.

Equities

Stocks have outperformed houses significantly over the past five decades.

Energy

Refining margins continue to rise.

Global Developments

Global reserve diversification has shifted less into major alternatives—such as the euro, yen, sterling, or renminbi—and more into unspecified “other” fiat currencies. The share of these “other” currencies has risen by more than $500 billion since 2020 to 6.2% in Q1 2026, surpassing the yen as the third-largest reserve component.

United States

Goldman expects a slowdown in real disposable cash flows in the second half of the year, weighing on consumer spending.

Canada

The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures, CPI-median and CPI-trim, both decelerated to below 2%.

United Kingdom

The unemployment rate held steady, defying consensus expectations of an increase.

Euro Area

Pantheon Macroeconomics’ nowcast model points to robust Q2 growth.

Asia-Pacific

The Kospi has become the world’s most volatile major equity benchmark this year, nearly twice as volatile as Japan’s Nikkei 225—and even more volatile than Bitcoin.

China

Household disposable income per capita rose in the second quarter.

Equities

This map shows how much of each market’s revenue is generated from domestic sources.

Global Developments

Is global PMI about to turn?

United States

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rebounded sharply, topping expectations.

Japan

SoftBank has overtaken Toyota as Japan’s largest company by market capitalization for only the second time on record—the first occurring at the peak of the 2000 tech bubble—underscoring elevated valuations and potential downside risks for global technology stocks.

China

Chinese margin balances fell 2.8% to 2.75 trillion yuan on Friday, the sharpest deleveraging since January 2016.

Emerging Markets

Latin American currencies offer the best carry-to-risk ratios.

Equities

The momentum factor is following its typical historical pattern after three-month rallies of over 20%.

Rates

US short-gamma strategies have significantly outperformed their European and UK counterparts since March, as elevated implied volatility combined with subdued realized volatility created an unusually attractive volatility risk premium.

Energy

US gasoline prices rose above $4 a gallon for the first time in a month.

United States

Headline retail sales growth slowed, driven by a steep drop in spending at gasoline stations. However, the key “control group”—a direct input for GDP—posted solid gains, …

United States

… due to strong gains in autos and nonstore retail. The jump in nonstore sales could be attributed to Amazon Prime Day, which fell in late June this year rather than the typical July.

Canada

Housing starts slumped.

Euro Area

Euro area peripheral equities have significantly outperformed core markets since 2024, …

Asia-Pacific

Taiwan’s stock market tumbled into a technical correction amid a broad selloff in global chip stocks due to concerns over AI valuations, margin pressure, and potential oversupply.

Emerging Markets

Malaysia’s economy accelerated in Q2, as resilient services activity and robust semiconductor exports offset geopolitical headwinds.

Equities

Although TMT stocks account for a larger share of global equity market capitalization than at the peak of the dot-com bubble, their earnings and cash flow have grown even more, leaving valuations well below the excesses of 2000.

Global Developments

Goldman Sachs research shows that geopolitical risk shocks weigh on global GDP growth only briefly, with emerging markets experiencing larger initial declines than developed economies.

United States

The one-year inflation swap rate fell below 2% for the first time since September 2024.

Canada

The Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% and struck a modestly hawkish tone. It upgraded its medium-term growth outlook while maintaining confidence that underlying inflation remains contained, reinforcing expectations that rates will stay on hold through 2026.

United Kingdom

The UK economy rebounded in May, driven by a surge in professional services, which offset sharp declines in the construction and energy sectors. The three-month-over-three-month growth rate remains solidly above potential growth.

Euro Area

China’s exports to Germany surpassed the pandemic-era peak and are almost 70% above their 2010–19 trend.

Asia-Pacific

The Bank of Korea raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, a unanimous decision. Officials upgraded the 2026 GDP outlook, now expecting growth to “considerably exceed” the previous 2.6% forecast, driven by robust semiconductor exports. The governor emphasized data dependency for future policy but noted that discussions were aligned with the May dot plot, which signaled an additional 50 basis points of hikes this year.

Equities

The hyperscaler multiple has been crushed.

Energy

The Brent prompt spread is spiking after briefly flirting with contango.

United States

Based on the CPI data, Nomura expects June core PCE inflation to decelerate to 0.168% month over month.

Japan

Japan’s large domestic private savings and persistent current account surplus continue to fund its fiscal deficits internally, distinguishing it from countries such as the UK that rely on foreign capital.

Equities

The weight of the technology sector is now above levels seen during the tech bubble.

Equities

The gap between semiconductors and technology excluding semiconductors has been steadily widening.

United States

Data center construction growth has slowed considerably.

Asia-Pacific

Taiwan’s population declined for a 30th consecutive month—the longest stretch since World War II.

China

The PBOC set its daily reference rate below 6.80 per dollar for the first time since 2023, signaling greater tolerance for currency appreciation.

Equities

Consensus expects today’s AI capex to translate into surging free cash flows by 2028.

Rates

… while foreign demand eased from a January peak back toward historical norms.

Credit

Private credit stress has risen disproportionately among smaller funds.

Global Developments

This chart shows KKR’s capital market assumptions across asset classes.

United States

Our FOMC Minutes Sentiment Indicator turned the most hawkish since 2022.

Euro Area

Daily indicators suggest consumer confidence continues to improve.

Europe

Hungary recorded the largest June budget surplus on record.

China

China’s consumer price inflation eased, primarily driven by nonfood prices, particularly lower fuel and gold costs.

Equities

This chart contrasts the forward free cash flows of hyperscalers and semiconductor companies.

Credit

Bond issuance by AI hyperscalers in the first half of 2026 has already surpassed the full-year 2025 total.

Cryptocurrency

Bespoke’s midyear 2026 investor survey showed Bitcoin sentiment deteriorated sharply, with bullishness falling to 13% from 35% at the end of 2025.

United States

According to the New York Fed’s survey of consumers, inflation expectations rose at the one- and three-year horizons to multiyear highs, while five-year expectations remained stable.

United Kingdom

However, UK equities appear attractive on a relative basis, combining the lowest forward valuation among major developed markets with a high return on equity, supporting the case for outperformance versus European peers.

Euro Area

German growth remains significantly weaker than in the rest of the euro area, although growth has been rebounding everywhere recently.

Asia-Pacific

The Kospi has entered a bear market.

China

The Hang Seng Tech Index is still only slightly positive since 2020, sharply underperforming US tech shares.

Equities

The current level of the cyclically adjusted earnings yield implies very low returns for the coming decade.

Rates

Less forward-looking FOMC statements have historically been associated with larger yield moves and smaller declines in post-meeting implied volatility.

Energy

Oil prices jumped after the US and Iran traded fire. President Trump declared the ceasefire effectively over.

United States

The ISM Services PMI moderated, signaling a slight cooling in the sector’s still-robust expansion.

United States

Before COVID, inflation surprises had little consistent effect on front-end interest rates. Since the pandemic, however, CPI surprises have become a much stronger driver of front-end yields as inflation has taken center stage in monetary policy.

Equities

The spread between single-stock implied volatility (VIXEQ) and index implied volatility (VIX) widened to a record high, signaling exceptionally elevated equity dispersion and suggesting that market risk is increasingly concentrated in individual stocks and sectors.

h/t Mandy Xu, Cboe

Equities

The number of employees at S&P 500 companies has fallen while the forward operating margin has surged.

Equities

Hyperscalers have underperformed chip stocks.

Equities

Mentions of AI disruptions in global earnings call transcripts surged this year.

Food for Thought

US gasoline prices have experienced repeated spikes and declines over the past decade, while the equivalent cost of charging an EV at home has risen gradually by just $0.48 per gallon-equivalent.

United States

One dollar invested in stocks at the start of 1800 would’ve grown to nearly $67 million, compounding at an annualized return of 8.3%. After inflation, the terminal value becomes $2 million for an annualized return of 6.6%.

Euro Area

German factory orders rose by 1.9%. The strong headline was heavily influenced by a surge in volatile transport and defense orders; excluding these large items, orders rose by a more modest 1.0%.

China

China’s largest ETF is now a spot gold fund, overtaking the benchmark CSI 300 ETF as state-backed support for equities fades.

Equities

Goldman’s high-beta momentum basket is experiencing a significant drawdown.

Energy

US refining margins remain near multiyear highs despite falling crude prices and maximum refinery utilization, indicating persistent fuel supply constraints and lingering disruptions following the Strait of Hormuz shipping crisis.

Commodities

Tungsten—a dense, heat-resistant metal essential for industrial machinery and armor-piercing munitions—is increasingly dominated by China, which now accounts for about 80% of global mine production after decades of low-cost output drove competitors out of the market.

Cryptocurrency

The tokenized real-world asset market has grown to nearly $32 billion, led by US Treasuries and private credit.

United States

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is now tracking Q2 GDP at just 1.2%, down sharply from 2.5% on June 25.

Euro Area

France’s year-to-date budget deficit was narrower than the same period last year.

Euro Area

EUR/GBP has entered oversold territory.

Japan

Japan recorded 45 weak-yen-related corporate bankruptcies in the first half of 2026, the highest since tracking began in 2022, as surging import costs increasingly strain smaller import-dependent businesses despite continued benefits for exporters.

Asia-Pacific

The Kospi fell below its 50-day moving average.

Equities

TMT stocks are trading near their richest relative valuations since the dot-com era, while defensive stocks are trading at record discounts, suggesting elevated rotation risk.

Energy

Energy remains the most defensive sector, with the one-year correlation with the S&P 500 turning negative and reaching a record low in June.

United States

Year-over-year same-store sales growth measured by the Redbook Index accelerated further to the strongest level since October 2022.

Canada

The monthly GDP rebounded strongly in April, alleviating recession concerns. However, the preliminary estimate for May indicates a significant slowdown.

Japan

The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey for Q2 showed that large manufacturers’ sentiment surged to its highest level since March 2018, driven by an AI investment boom and stable trade relations.

Asia-Pacific

South Korea’s exports surged to a new record high, …

China

The RatingDog manufacturing PMI edged down, but still marked the strongest quarter since Q4 2020. The expansion was driven by sustained domestic new orders, while new export business fell for a second month.

Emerging Markets

Frontier-market sovereign credit spreads have tightened to near historic lows even as debt burdens and fiscal pressures have worsened, highlighting unusually strong investor risk appetite.

Equities

Chip stocks had the best quarter on record.

Rates

Treasuries across the curve have underperformed cash so far this year. The front- and long-end Treasuries outperformed the belly.

United States

Every measure of consumer confidence has declined this year.

United Kingdom

Households reduced their saving rate in the first quarter as higher spending outpaced flat incomes.

Euro Area

German retail sales posted a surprisingly strong rebound. However, the quality of the data is questionable, with analysts citing an unusual deflator and overly supportive seasonal factors.

Asia-Pacific

New Zealand business confidence surged in June, with activity strengthening and inflation indicators easing.

China

China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI edged up and returned to expansionary territory.

Emerging Markets

The consensus long-term earnings growth estimate for emerging markets has accelerated significantly.

Equities

The trailing one-year correlation between the cap-weighted and equal-weighted S&P 500 has fallen to a record low.

h/t Goldman Sachs

Global Developments

This chart shows developed-country economic conditions based on Variant Perception’s leading indicators.

United States

Looking past the month-over-month noise, both exports and imports have been strong, while surveys have remained in expansionary territory.

United Kingdom

Variant Perception’s leading growth indicator for the UK remains very weak.

Euro Area

Credit growth in the euro area remained strong, particularly for nonfinancial corporates.

China

China’s year-to-date industrial profits grew 18.8% year over year, the fastest pace since December 2021.

Equities

The number of S&P 500 stocks with negative six-month beta to the overall market has surged.

Rates

Treasuries across the curve have bounced back into the black this year.

Energy

The uptick in vessel crossings at the Strait of Hormuz has fizzled.